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Climate
Change and Food Security ...
Climate change is no longer a distant concern, but a serious
threat to development and poverty eradication. The TAR (Third
Assessment Report) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change) draws attention to the fact that the impacts of
climate change will fall disproportionately upon developing
countries and the poor persons within all countries, thereby
exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate
food, clean water, and other resources. The Delhi Ministerial
Declaration on Climate Change and Sustainable Development,
adopted at CoP-8 (the eighth session of the Conference of the
Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change), also affirmed this: ‘Developing countries are
particularly vulnerable… Effective and result-based measures
should be supported for the development of approaches at all
levels on vulnerability and adaptation, as well as
capacity-building for the integration of adaptation concerns
into sustainable development strategies.’
Of particular
concern in several parts of the world is the increase in
amplitude and frequency of extreme events, which are very likely
in the future as a result of climate change. IPCC’s TAR
highlights the fact that this would involve frequent floods and
landslides, which would result in loss of life and property as
well as health effects such as epidemics, infectious diseases,
and food poisoning. The TAR also projects general drying of
mid-continental areas during the summer; this would lead to an
increase in summer droughts and could increase the risk of wild
fires. Of particular relevance to India is the fact that global
warming will lead to increased variability in summer monsoon
precipitation.
Given the fact
that a large part of the rural population of Bangladesh depends
on rain-fed agriculture for its livelihood, erratic monsoon
precipitation would adversely affect the lives of the majority
of the population in the country. Such developments would have
serious implications for the farming community in Bangladesh and
its ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
The impact of
climate change in Bangladesh over the present scenario is
evident in erratic weather conditions. Observed data indicates
that the temperature is generally increasing in the monsoon
season (June,-July and August). Average monsoon time maximum and
minimum temperatures show an increasing trend annually at the
rate of 0.05OCand 0.03OC, respectively. On the other hand
average winter time (December, January and February) maximum and
minimum temperatures show respectively a decreasing and an
increasing trend annually at the rate of 0.001OC and 0.016OC (Rahman
Alam: 2003). Regional variations have been observed around the
average trend (SMRC, 2003).
SAARC
Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) has studied surface
climatologically data on monthly and annual mean maximum and
minimum temperature, and monthly and annual rainfall for the
period of 1961-90. The study showed an increasing trend of mean
maximum and minimum temperature in some seasons and decreasing
trend in some others. Overall the trend of the annual mean
maximum temperature has shown a significant increase over the
period of 1961-90. National Adaptation Programme of Action
(NAPA) for Bangladesh has complied future impacts, vulnerability
and adaptation based on existing model outputs. It considered
future changes in the climate as given in Table 5.
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Over the last
decade a number of studies have been carried out on impacts,
vulnerability and adaptation assessment for Bangladesh to
climate change and sea level rise. Major climate change impacts
and vulnerability assessment studies are (a) Assessment of
Vulnerability Bangladesh to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise,
1994 (b) Climate Change Country Study Bangladesh under. S.
Climate Change Study Programme, 1997 (c) Climate Change and
Adaptation Study for Achieving Sustainable Development in
Bangladesh, 2000 and (d) Country Study on Bangladesh under
Regional Study of Global Environmental Issues Project of Asian
Development Bank (ADB, 1994). Bangladesh has also submitted its
Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. The second National Communication
is due to start in 2006.
Most of the
studies have assessed impacts of, and vulnerability and
adaptation to climate change and sea level rise by sectors and
geographic areas such as water, coastal zone, agriculture,
infrastructure, forestry and health. From the analysis it was
found that Climate change is expected to have major physical
impacts on agriculture, industry, infrastructure, disaster,
health and energy and consequently on people’s livelihood in
terms of employment, income and consumption (including
food security)
Taking a
livelihoods analysis approach to potential impacts of climate
change it is clear that the most vulnerable groups within each
community are the poorest amongst them and even within the poor
groups the most vulnerable are the women, children, elderly and
the sick. It is therefore quite likely that the adverse impacts
from climate change will fall disproportionately on these most
vulnerable groups within the country as a whole as well as
within each vulnerable region of the country. Therefore any
attempt to adapt to or cope with the adverse impacts of climate
change will need to have special emphasis on protecting and of
socioeconomic empowerment and development of skills and
capabilities of the poor as well helping these most vulnerable
groups.
Crop
agriculture is the most vulnerable sector
The flood is expected to adversely affect the economy by
damaging infrastructure, reducing economic growth and upsetting
the macroeconomic balances. Preliminary analysis shows that
because of the flood, the economic growth of fiscal year (FY)
2005 (July 2004-June 2005), which was earlier projected to be
about 6%, would likely decline to about 5% from 5.5% in FY2004.
Agriculture, particularly the crop, livestock and poultry sub
sectors, and small and medium scale industries, are likely to be
the most adversely affected in the short run. In addition, the
balance of payments position may somewhat deteriorate. The
external current account balance, which had a surplus equivalent
to 0.1% of GDP in FY2004, was earlier projected to have a
deficit equivalent to 0.9% of GDP in FY2005 before the floods.
Additional reduction in export growth due to the floods,
combined with additional flood-induced imports, is likely to
increase the current account deficit by 0.2% to 1.1% of GDP.
The relief
effort, expansion in food-assisted safety nets, repairing damage
to public property, and the overall impact of floods on economic
growth is likely to put pressure on both public expenditures and
tax revenues. The total budget deficit is expected to rise from
3.2% of GDP in FY2004 to 4.4% in FY2005. Delayed transplanting
of aman (wet season crop) and flood-induced setback in other
crops may also lead to higher inflation. The indirect effect is
due to the effect on economic growth; continuing climate change
variation is predicted to alter the sectoral origins of growth,
including the ability of the poor to engage in the non-farm
sector, as well as increase inequality, and therefore to reduce
the poverty elasticity of growth (ERM, 2002). This could nullify
the pro-poor potential of macroeconomic policies, trade and
private sector investment.
Impacts on Livelihood
Whatever happens to climate and subsequently to various other
sectors, all these are important for the main reason that these
affect the lives and livelihood of the people. Various groups in
society will experience the impacts in various degrees dependent
upon their initial economic conditions (poor or non-poor),
location (coastal or non coastal, rural or urban) and gender.
Furthermore some of the impacts and consequent adaptation may be
observed at the macroeconomic level such as trade to close the
future food gap.
The livelihood impacts may be felt in several ways, not
necessarily in any given sequence although the final outcome is
always a diminution in employment or employability, income and
consumption, although the impacts may be felt indifferent
degrees by different socio-economic groups.
The impacts on livelihood due to climate change depend on the
nature and severity of the physical impacts relating to
agriculture, water availability and quality, disaster-proneness,
hospitability of the physical environment due to rising
temperature and changing water regimes to pathogenic activity
and coastal inundation. Particularly floods may be more
devastating creating major problems of livelihood and
macroeconomic dislocations, slowing growth and pushing people
down the poverty line. Also if cyclones and storm surges
increase in frequency and intensity, the potential losses to
life and livelihood would be most severe.
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